U.S. consumer prices likely increased by the most in 1-1/2 years in the year to November, economists predicted, which would underscore the worsening affordability challenges confronting Americans that have been partly blamed on tariffs on imports. The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish month-to-month changes when it releases the delayed Consumer Price Index report for November on Tuesday after the 43-day shutdown of the government prevented the collection of October data. The October CPI release was canceled because the price data could not be collected retroactively.
The longest shutdown in history also impacted labor market data, with the government failing to publish an unemployment rate for October for the first time ever. But the BLS will publish the year-on-year rates for the CPI and the so-called core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy components. The agency publishes numerous indexes in addition to the broad CPI and core CPI. Those derived from data that does not need to be physically collected will be available, though the BLS said it expected “the number of publishable indexes to be small.”The statistics agency has said it “cannot provide specific guidance to data users for navigating the missing October observations.” Economists advised viewing the CPI and its components on a year-on-year basis or two-month change.
“Downward inflation progress has stalled,” said Andy Schneider, a senior U.S. economist at BNP Paribas. “This largely reflects companies in goods-producing sectors passing tariff costs through into prices.” The CPI likely increased 3.1% year-on-year in November, which would be the largest gain since May 2024, a Reuters survey of economists estimated. The CPI advanced 3.0% in the 12 months through September. But the CPI could print below expectations as data collection was delayed late into the month, when retailers offered holiday season discounts. That could be evident in lower prices for goods like furniture and recreation goods. “November CPI this year could capture a period that more heavily reflects holiday season discounts than a usual November, which would reflect average prices through the whole month,” said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup. “If there is some abnormal weakness in November goods prices, there could be a larger rebound in these components in December.”
President Donald Trump’s sweeping import duties have raised prices for many goods, though the tariff pass-through has been gradual as businesses worked through inventory accumulated prior to the tightening of trade policy and also absorbed some of the taxes, evident in moderate new motor vehicle price increases.
